Gold held near $4,060 per ounce on Tuesday, while the December futures contract climbed to a high of $4,142.20, a 1.26% rise.
Spot and Futures Move Within a Tight Range
The spot price opened around $4,060, with the December contract starting at $4,109.60, up 0.5% from Monday’s settlement. By 8:03 a.m. Eastern, futures were at $4,136.30, and later intraday peaked at $4,142.20. Mid‑session prints clustered near $4,122.50, reflecting a modest 0.8% advance.
Monday’s spot settlement was $4,054, a 0.27% gain after a session that saw the metal hover between $4,030 and $4,050. The daily spot range on Tuesday ran roughly $4,042 to $4,084, keeping price confined within a $4,007‑$4,157 band for the second week.
Official Buying and ETF Outflows Shape the Market
Central banks added 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter, a 62% increase year over year and the strongest Q2 official buying on record.
In contrast, North American gold‑backed exchange‑traded funds shed 61 tonnes in the first half of the year, marking the weakest six‑month outflow since 2013. Global ETF demand remained modestly positive at 18 tonnes, as non‑Western flows offset much of the North American exit.
Gold remains range‑bound.
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The market’s structure reflects a balance between safe‑haven demand linked to the ongoing Strait of Hormuz tension and the dampening effect of firm Treasury yields. Inflation data have softened, yet the Federal Reserve’s policy stance remains hawkish.
Real yields on the 10‑year inflation‑protected Treasury remain below 2.5%, a level historically associated with sustained physical demand. Should a September hike push real yields above that threshold, the structural bid for gold could weaken.
Meanwhile, the dollar index slipped to a seven‑week low of 99.8 at the start of August, rebounding to 100.3 later in the week. The yen’s volatility, driven by coordinated interventions from major reserve managers, has added a textbook catalyst for gold, yet the metal’s response has been muted, suggesting the rates channel currently outweighs the currency channel.
Technical analysis shows a symmetrical triangle bounded by a 50‑period exponential moving average at $4,059 and a 100‑period at $4,067. Relative strength index reads 50, indicating neutral momentum. Resistance sits at $4,067, followed by $4,111‑$4,115, while support runs to $4,057 and then $3,999.
The market appears poised for a resolution once non‑geopolitical data, such as upcoming labor reports, provide clearer direction. Until then, price compression is likely to persist within the current technical bounds.
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