Oracle’s shares closed Monday at $141.85, up 9.22% amid a broad rally in artificial‑intelligence and cloud stocks, after trading around $139.90 in the afternoon session for an 8% gain. The move follows a fresh buy recommendation and unusually high options volume that leaned bullish.
Technical backdrop and recent performance
The stock rebounded from a 52‑week low of $114.50 and now sits roughly 24% above that level. Two weeks earlier, Oracle traded at $120.03 on July 20, with a 14‑day relative‑strength reading of 32.72, just shy of oversold territory after a 27.8% drop in a single month.
Despite the bounce, the equity remains far from its recent highs. It sits 28% below its start‑of‑2026 level and about 47% lower over the past 52 weeks. The 52‑week peak of $345.72, reached in September 2025, marks a decline of close to 59%, erasing roughly $494 billion of market value.
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Immediate resistance is at $145.50, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, about 2.6% above Monday’s close. Above that, the 50‑period exponential moving average sits at $150.01, followed by $154.93 and $164.57, while the 100‑period average rests near $175.78. A climb to $200 would require a roughly 40% rally from current levels.
Backlog growth outpaces cash flow
Oracle reported a fourth‑quarter backlog of $638 billion, up 363% year‑over‑year and $85 billion higher than the prior quarter. That figure represents contracted revenue not yet recognized and equates to about 9.5 years of the current fiscal‑2026 run rate of $67.36 billion.
The surge stems from demand for cloud infrastructure that supports AI training and inference. Public‑cloud infrastructure revenue grew 93%, while the broader cloud segment advanced near 47% for the fiscal year. Across the sector, the top four cloud providers now hold backlogs exceeding $2.3 trillion, a 16% rise from the first quarter.
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Market participants appear skeptical. Even as contracted revenue balloons, the stock is down 28% year‑to‑date, implying concerns that converting the $638 billion of obligations into cash will require borrowing at margins that have not yet been proven.
Revenue and earnings performance
Fiscal 2026 revenue reached $67.36 billion, a 17.35% increase from $57.40 billion a year earlier. GAAP operating income rose 17% to $20.6 billion, while non‑GAAP operating income hit a record $28.9 billion, up 16%.
GAAP net income climbed 36% to $17.0 billion, and non‑GAAP net income grew 29% to $22.2 billion. Earnings per share rose 34% on a GAAP basis to $5.83, and non‑GAAP EPS increased 27% to $7.631.
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The fourth quarter delivered $19.18 billion of revenue, up 21% year‑over‑year, and adjusted earnings of $2.11 per share, beating expectations. Despite the earnings beat, the stock fell 7% after hours, reflecting investor focus on capital‑expenditure overruns.
Cloud revenue, a key growth driver, rose 34% to $8.0 billion in the second quarter, and public‑cloud infrastructure revenue grew 93%, the fastest rate among large‑cap peers. The strategy emphasizes affordable AI training workloads and accelerator availability, winning contracts from frontier labs when competitors hit capacity constraints.
Looking ahead, the company guides fiscal 2027 revenue to $90 billion and non‑GAAP EPS to $8.05, implying a 33.6% year‑over‑year increase. The outlook hinges on the $638 billion backlog and the ability to fund ongoing data‑center construction without further eroding free cash flow.
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