Gold prices jumped back toward $4,090 on Wednesday after an Iranian strike raised safe‑haven demand, even as traders braced for the Federal Reserve’s 2 p.m. policy decision.
Iranian attacks push Brent and gold higher
COMEX gold opened at $4,020.90, down 0.4% from Tuesday’s settlement, but quickly reversed direction. By 8:17 a.m. ET the price was near $4,090, while spot quotes lagged, hovering between $4,028 and $4,041. Futures moved first, a pattern that usually signals a headline‑driven shift rather than a change in physical demand.
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The U.S. Central Command reported that Iranian forces launched a surprise attack on American positions across the region, including ballistic missiles aimed at a base in Jordan. The incident ended a days‑long lull and sent Brent crude up 6.6% to $89.61 per barrel, according to market data. The rise in oil prices fed into the safe‑haven narrative, lifting gold as investors sought protection.
Fed meeting adds uncertainty to gold’s outlook
The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its decision at 2 p.m. ET, with the target range remaining at 3.50%–3.75%. Market consensus expects a hold, but odds of a quarter‑point hike range from 30% to 38%, while roughly 80% of traders price a September increase.
Higher policy rates tend to boost Treasury yields, raising the opportunity cost of holding a non‑yielding asset like gold. At the same time, a firmer dollar typically depresses the metal’s dollar price. Both forces have been operating since June, contributing to a 28% drawdown from the start of the year.
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Gold has been trapped in a narrow $100 corridor for two weeks. The 21‑day moving average sits at $4,070.45, while the 100‑day and 200‑day averages sit near $4,458 and $4,492 respectively.
Silver rose 1.36% to $57.92, widening the gold‑silver ratio to 70.27. The broader market view is that risk‑off sentiment is hitting industrial metals harder than gold.
Support around $3,970 and $3,930 is thin, while resistance near $4,021 and $4,040 caps upside moves.
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Investors should expect gold to stay jittery around the $4,000‑$4,060 range until the Fed’s decision clarifies the trade.
Overall, gold’s near‑term path hinges on the balance between geopolitical risk and monetary tightening.
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