Royal LePage adjusted its forecast for Canadian home prices this year, now predicting a 2% rise in the national aggregate price by the fourth quarter of 2026 compared with the same quarter last year. The real estate firm previously expected a 1% gain, but demand surpassing supply in some areas led to the update, with the new estimate at $823,344.
Regional differences shape the market
Quebec City is projected to lead with 8% year-over-year price growth, followed by the Greater Montreal Area and Winnipeg at 5%. Halifax, Edmonton, and Regina should see increases of 4%. Meanwhile, Canada’s priciest markets—Vancouver and Toronto—are expected to drop by 3.5% and 2%, respectively, by late 2025.
The spring market gained momentum in May after a slow start, with activity continuing into June. Royal LePage president and CEO Phil Soper explained that delayed listings from earlier in the year are now fueling demand.
“Several regions are seeing that momentum extend into summer, as buyers who waited earlier in the year return,” Soper said in a statement. “In many cases, hesitation stems not from disinterest but from a lack of immediate need.”
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Higher inventory levels in some markets have allowed buyers more time to consider options, easing pressure. Economic concerns, including inflation tied to rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions, have also made Canadians more hesitant about large financial decisions.
Trade policy adds to uncertainty
The report pointed to another factor affecting confidence: the future of Canada’s trade ties with the United States. On July 1, the U.S. government announced it would not renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) as originally planned. Instead, the deal will face annual reviews until its 2036 expiration.
“For Canadian consumers, uncertainty around CUSMA creates another reason to pause before making big financial choices, like buying or selling a home,” Soper said. “Even if most people aren’t directly affected through their jobs, trade-related worries still dampen confidence.”
Despite these challenges, the national aggregate home price in the second quarter reached $814,900. This marked a 1.4% decline from the previous year but remained nearly unchanged from the first quarter, with only a 0.2% increase. By housing type, single-family detached homes fell 0.9% year-over-year to $862,400, while condominium prices dropped 2.9% to $574,800. Quarter-over-quarter, single-family home prices rose 0.6%, but condo prices edged down 0.5%.
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The divide between Canada’s most and least expensive markets is shrinking. While Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area saw declines of 4.5% and 4.6%, respectively, tight supply in other regions helped stabilize national prices. Soper suggested this trend could reduce interprovincial moves, as buyers discover opportunities in markets once considered out of reach.
“Falling prices in our largest cities are improving accessibility, allowing buyers who were previously priced out to enter the market,” he said. “Meanwhile, smaller markets that avoided extreme pandemic-driven price swings have maintained steady gains.”
This change may influence where Canadians decide to live, as affordability plays a larger role in a market still adapting to economic pressures.
Royal LePage’s revised outlook reflects a cautious but active market, where regional differences continue to shape outcomes.
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